The CFNAI is a monthly economic activity index built from 85 existing indicators spanning production, income, employment, and consumption. Rather than tracking one economic measure, it aggregates dozens of them into a single reading that filters out individual data point noise. Published monthly by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank with roughly a one-month lag.
Zero represents trend growth for the U.S. economy historically. Positive means above-trend growth. Negative means below-trend. A 3-month moving average below -0.7 has been a reliable recession signal - the NBER has used it as part of their recession dating process. Above 0.2 indicates solid economic momentum. Because it aggregates 85 indicators, the CFNAI is less subject to any single data distortion than individual economic releases. It is most useful for confirming signals from other indicators rather than as a standalone alert.
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