About Macroscope

Glossary and methodology reference

What is Macroscope?

Macroscope is a real-time macroeconomic dashboard designed to teach you how to read the economy. It tracks 51economic indicators across 8 categories, explains each one in plain English, and scores them on a 0–100 scale so you can see at a glance what's strengthening, weakening, and why. On every indicator page, you're asked “What do you think happens next?” - make your call, get AI-powered analysis of what your prediction would mean for the broader economy, and track your accuracy over time. The goal isn't just to show you data - it's to help you build the intuition to interpret it yourself.

Why it exists

Macroscope was built by a first-year finance student at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business who wanted to learn how to actually read the economy. Conversations with upperclassmen and faculty pointed in the right direction - read the markets, follow the data, teach yourself through experience - but there wasn't a single tool that pulled it all together in one place. The resources exist - YouTube, articles, market reports - but they're scattered and disconnected. This platform was built to fill that gap: a place where you can learn macro by watching it move in real time, forming your own opinions, and seeing how the pieces connect. Learning through application, not just textbooks.

Important disclaimer

Macroscope is an educational tool designed to help you understand macroeconomic indicators and their relationships. It is not financial or investment advice. The scores, analyses, and projections on this platform are for learning purposes only and should not be used to make investment decisions.

Glossary

Basis Points

A unit equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). Used to describe small changes in interest rates - a move from 4.50% to 4.25% is a 25 basis point cut.

BEA

Bureau of Economic Analysis - the U.S. government agency that publishes GDP and personal income and spending data.

Bear Market

A period of falling asset prices, typically defined as a 20% or more decline from a recent high.

BLS

Bureau of Labor Statistics - the U.S. government agency that publishes employment data including the jobs report and CPI.

Bull Market

A period of rising asset prices, typically defined as a 20% or more rise from a recent low.

Central Bank

The institution responsible for managing a country's money supply and interest rates. The Federal Reserve is the U.S. central bank. Other major central banks include the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), and Bank of England (BOE).

Coincident Indicator

An economic measure that moves roughly in sync with the overall economy, reflecting current conditions rather than predicting future ones - like industrial production.

Contraction

A period of declining economic activity - the phase of the business cycle between a peak and a trough.

CPI

Consumer Price Index - the most widely followed inflation measure, tracking price changes for a fixed basket of consumer goods and services.

Credit Spread

The difference in yield between a corporate bond and a comparable Treasury bond. Wider spreads signal that investors perceive more risk of default.

Deflation

A sustained decrease in the general price level - often more damaging than inflation because it causes consumers to delay purchases expecting further price drops.

Diffusion Index

An index that measures how broadly a condition is spreading across a group - a PMI of 52 means 52% of respondents reported improvement, so above 50 means expansion.

Dovish

A policy stance that favors lower interest rates to stimulate growth, accepting more inflation risk.

Expansion

A period of increasing economic activity characterized by rising GDP, employment, and consumer spending.

Federal Funds Rate

The interest rate at which banks lend overnight reserves to each other, set by the Federal Reserve at FOMC meetings 8 times per year. Also called the Fed funds rate, it is the primary tool of U.S. monetary policy - raising it slows the economy, cutting it stimulates activity.

FOMC

Federal Open Market Committee - the 12-member body within the Federal Reserve that sets U.S. monetary policy, meeting 8 times per year.

FRED

Federal Reserve Economic Data - the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis free database containing hundreds of thousands of economic time series from official sources.

GDP

Gross Domestic Product - the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a given period, the broadest measure of economic output.

Hawkish

A policy stance that favors higher interest rates to control inflation, even at the cost of slower economic growth.

Headline Inflation

The total inflation rate including all items, especially volatile food and energy prices. Differs from core inflation which strips out food and energy to show underlying price trends.

Inflation

A sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services, eroding the purchasing power of money.

Lagging Indicator

An economic measure that changes after the broader economy has already shifted - like the unemployment rate, which typically peaks after a recession has already begun.

Leading Indicator

An economic measure that tends to change before the broader economy changes, giving advance warning of future conditions - like building permits signaling future construction activity.

Month-over-month

The percentage change in a value compared to the immediately preceding month. Commonly abbreviated as MoM.

Nowcast

A real-time estimate of current economic conditions using data available today, as opposed to a forecast of future conditions.

PCE

Personal Consumption Expenditures price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, slightly broader than CPI because it accounts for consumer substitution behavior.

PMI

Purchasing Managers Index - a survey of business purchasing managers that produces a diffusion index where above 50 means expansion and below 50 means contraction.

PPI

Producer Price Index - measures price changes from the seller perspective, tracking what businesses pay each other before goods reach consumers.

Quantitative Easing

A monetary policy where a central bank buys financial assets to inject money into the economy, typically deployed when interest rates hit zero and more stimulus is needed. Commonly abbreviated as QE.

Quantitative Tightening

The reverse of quantitative easing (QE) - a central bank shrinks its balance sheet by letting bonds mature without reinvesting, withdrawing liquidity from the financial system. Commonly abbreviated as QT.

Real Interest Rates

The nominal interest rate minus inflation. When real rates are negative, borrowers are effectively paying back less in purchasing power than they borrowed, which tends to boost asset prices like gold and real estate.

Recession

A significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months. The informal definition is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

Sahm Rule

A recession indicator triggered when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low - has correctly identified every recession since the 1970s.

Year-over-year

The percentage change in a value compared to the same period twelve months earlier, removing seasonal patterns. Commonly abbreviated as YoY.

Yield Curve

A line plotting interest rates for bonds of equal quality but different maturity dates. When short-term rates exceed long-term rates (inverted), it has historically signaled recession.

How This Score Is Calculated

The Economy Health Score (0–100) is a weighted average of 8 macro categories. Each category contains between 2 and 9 indicators that are individually scored based on where their current reading falls within historically defined ranges.

Category Weights

Labor & Income18%

Consumer Activity18%

Prices & Stability16%

Policy & Financial Conditions16%

Production & Business Activity12%

Housing & Wealth10%

Growth & Global Flows6%

Sentiment & Valuation4%

Labor and Consumer carry the most weight because employment and spending are the most direct measures of real economic activity. Sentiment and Global Flows carry the least because they are more volatile and less directly tied to domestic output.

Leading Indicator Multiplier

Within each category, indicators tagged as Leading receive 1.5x weight compared to lagging or coincident indicators. Leading indicators - like building permits, jobless claims, and credit spreads - tend to move before the broader economy turns, making them more valuable for understanding where things are headed.

Signal-Only Indicators

Some indicators are labeled signal and do not contribute to the score. These are included for educational context - they show important data but either lack reliable scoring bands or use proprietary data sources that lag significantly.

Score Zones

0–20Contractingbroad economic weakness

21–38Neutralmixed signals, no clear direction

39–63Expandinghealthy growth

64–80Overheatinggrowth may be unsustainably fast

81–100Overheatedextreme overheating often precedes a downturn