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OverviewPolicy & Financial Conditions

Policy & Financial Conditions

Interest rates, credit spreads, and the yield curve reflect the current stance of monetary and fiscal policy. Financial conditions here are the transmission mechanism from Fed decisions to the real economy.

0
Tight
16% portfolio weight

Indicators (8)

IndicatorValueTrendScoreUpdated
Federal Surplus or Deficit
$-1.8T
-
FY 2025
Federal Funds Rate
3.64%
47
February 2026
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions IndexLeading
-0.475
79
Mar 20, 2026
10-Year Treasury YieldLeading
4.42%
54
Mar 26, 2026
10Y-2Y Treasury SpreadLeading
0.56%
77
Mar 27, 2026
ICE BofA Corp Bond SpreadLeading
0.88%
88
Mar 26, 2026
2-Year Treasury YieldLeading
3.96%
52
Mar 26, 2026
CME FedWatch Implied RateLeading
3.68%
-
Mar 20, 2026
Score is a 0–100 normalized health index within this category. Leading indicators are weighted 1.5× in the composite.