Macroscope
Overview

Categories

Labor & IncomeConsumer ActivityPrices & StabilityPolicy & FinancialProduction & BusinessHousing & WealthGrowth & Global FlowsSentiment & Valuation

More

ProjectionsAbout
OverviewProjectionsAbout
OverviewGrowth & Global FlowsExports of Goods & Services

Exports of Goods & Services

Growth & Global FlowsLaggingMonthly · BEA via FRED
0
Strong
Health Score

What Is This?

U.S. Exports measures the value of American goods and services sold to foreign buyers - everything from soybeans and aircraft to software licenses and financial services. Strong exports reflect that U.S. producers are globally competitive and that the world economy has healthy demand for American products. Published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Units
Billions of USD (SAAR)
Frequency
monthly
Source
BEA via FRED
Type
lagging

How To Read It

Rising exports indicate healthy global demand and a competitive dollar. A strong dollar (high relative to trading partner currencies) makes U.S. exports more expensive and tends to suppress export growth. Falling exports outside of dollar strength often signal weakening global growth. Services exports (finance, intellectual property, education, healthcare) are increasingly important and tend to be more stable than goods exports. Watch exports relative to imports - the gap determines the trade balance that directly feeds into GDP.

Recent Readings

DateValueChange
January 2026Updated 86 days ago
$302.1B
+5.5%
December 2025
$286.3B
-1.6%
November 2025
$290.9B
-

Historical Chart

NBER recession

What do you think happens next?

Your projection for Exports of Goods & Services

AI Analysis

Analysis updated: Mar 18, 2026·Next refresh: ~9:05 AM EST

Bull Case

A $302.1B export reading with a rising trend signals robust external demand for domestically produced goods and services, consistent with strengthening global growth and improving trade partner conditions. Rising exports contribute positively to GDP via the net exports component and can support manufacturing employment, business investment, and current account improvement. If the upward momentum is sustained, it may reflect durable competitiveness gains or favorable exchange rate dynamics that could reinforce broader economic expansion.

Bear Case

As a coincident or lagging indicator, the current strength in exports may reflect demand conditions that have already peaked in key trading partner economies, meaning the headline figure could be masking an impending deceleration. A rising export trend can also be partially attributable to a weaker domestic currency, which, while boosting nominal export values, simultaneously raises import costs and compresses real purchasing power. Geopolitical trade tensions, tariff escalation, or a synchronized global growth slowdown remain material downside risks that could rapidly reverse this trajectory.

Macro Context

At $302.1B, exports are tracking within a range consistent with a mid-to-late cycle expansion, where external demand typically mirrors the lagged effects of prior global monetary easing and fiscal stimulus cycles. Investors and policymakers should monitor incoming PMI data from major trading partners—particularly the eurozone and China—as well as shipping volumes and freight rates for early signs of demand softening. The next critical threshold to watch is whether export growth can outpace import growth to generate a meaningful positive contribution to the trade balance and overall GDP.

Powered by Claude

Related Indicators

Real GDP
Real GDP Growth Rate
Trade Balance
Imports of Goods & Services
Copper Futures Price
Leading
Gold Futures Price
Leading